What's Next In Ed Tech?

Johnny Carson as Carnac the Magnificent

Late night television hasn't been the same since the late, great Johnny Carson left The Tonight Show. I was a big fan of Carson - his style, his impeccable comedic timing and his array of recurring characters. Perhaps my favorite character was Carnac the Magnificent. What a bit. After a scintillating introduction from Ed McMahon, Carson would appear from behind the curtain wearing a ridiculously over-sized turban and a cape. He would inevitably stumble over the step on his way to the desk, then go on to divine the answers to questions that were sealed inside an envelope. For example, the "great mystic from the East" might hold the envelope up to his forehead and pronounce the answer to be, "Igloo." Then he would rip open the envelope, blow into it, remove the card and read the "previously unknown" question, "What do you use to keep your ig from falling off." The bad puns were usually met with groans from the audience to which Carnac would respond with a "Middle Eastern Curse" like, "May the winds of the Sahara blow a desert scorpion up your turban." Ah, they don't write them like that anymore.

Crystal ball gazing, mind reading or trying to predict the future has always been a tricky proposition. So when I read an article recently from Compass Learning on "Key Predictions for the K - 12 Sector in 2012," I did so with a healthy degree of skepticism. The article is written by Arthur VanderVeen, founder of the NYC Innovation Zone (iZone) and former school district administrator in New York. Not surprisingly, four of the six predictions are directly related to educational technology. After considering his assertions, I can't see any reason to doubt his conclusions. In fact, I hope he is right on.

VanderVeen believes schools will continue to integrate instructional resources from multiple source to facilitate more personalized learning. He sees continued growth in blended learning models and increased use of online resources that allow for greater scheduling flexibility and choice for students and increased access to high quality teachers and elective courses. As school districts search for cost-effective strategies, technologies such as low-cost laptops or tablets, "Bring Your Own Device" initiatives and cloud-based hosting environments will become more common. And he believes that improved data interoperability will be key to achieving next-generation learning goals.

VanderVeen also includes teacher effectiveness and assessment programs will mature and while he doesn't tie that prediction directly to technology, I would like to see digital portfolios replace or at least supplement traditional teacher evaluation methods.

He also predicts the budgets will continue to be an issue - but you don't have to be a "wise mystic from the East" to predict that.